Estimate a prediction

Make uncertainty explicit instead of repeatedly checking for reassurance.

How to use it

Work with a manageable everyday situation. The sequence below is an invitation, not an assessment. You can skip by ending the exercise, correct your wording, or stop at any time.

1. State one specific prediction with a clear time frame.
2. What is your rough likelihood estimate and its factual basis?
3. What relevant alternatives or base-rate information do you actually have? Missing data is okay.
4. Give one revised estimate or range if useful, then choose an action without further checking.

With mira

Open this technique in mira. Review the selection before starting. This scripted exercise can run offline; it makes no AI requests. Your answers are saved on this device in the session's encrypted exercise state. They are not automatically inserted into ordinary AI chat.

Scope and source

An original self-reflection adaptation of CBT principles, not a complete treatment protocol or a clinically validated chatbot intervention. It cannot assess risk. Avoid overwhelming or traumatic material; stop if distressed and consider qualified support. Acceptance never means accepting abuse, danger, or an unwanted situation.

Judith S. Beck, Cognitive Behavior Therapy: Basics and Beyond, 3rd edition (2020). Beck Institute resources.

Executable Pattern Markdown

The same version-1 source is bundled in mira. This view is for inspection; it does not execute automatically.

:language 1
:title "Estimate a prediction"
:output outcome
= focus "Make uncertainty explicit instead of repeatedly checking for reassurance."
!use therapy.ready as readiness {
    :with focus
}
?branch {
    :when readiness.decision.value == "begin" -> explore
    :when readiness.decision.value == "support" -> support
    :else -> declined
}
explore:
!ask step1 {
    State one specific prediction with a clear time frame.
}
!ask step2 {
    What is your rough likelihood estimate and its factual basis?
}
!ask step3 {
    What relevant alternatives or base-rate information do you actually have? Missing data is okay.
}
!ask step4 {
    Give one revised estimate or range if useful, then choose an action without further checking.
}
!show {
    Your reflection, in your own words:

    1. {{step1}}
    2. {{step2}}
    3. {{step3}}
    4. {{step4}}

    You may leave this here. Nothing needs to feel resolved.
}
= outcome "reflected"
-> end
support:
!show {
    Stop the exercise. If anyone is in immediate danger, contact local emergency services. Reach a trusted person or qualified crisis support if you can. This exercise cannot provide emergency care.
}
= outcome "support_requested"
-> end
declined:
!show {
    We can leave this here. You do not need to explain or finish.
}
= outcome "declined"
-> end